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One must still have chaos in oneself to be able to give birth to a dancing star. -Nietzsche

  January 26, 2013

And Then What?

We walk through scenarios and affirm likely outcomes, then look ahead at what faces us. Most people don't even think two or three steps ahead, and if you point out probable consequences, or that a huge action is actually completely ineffectual at resolving a strategic conflict, they will quickly become frustrated, and then angry at you for causing them frustration.

With politics, a decision need only be made for immediate consequences and posturing. By the time effects are obvious, you will have used the position for a stepping stone to greater wealth, and someone else will have to clean up the mess.

Some of those questions apparently were uncomfortable. Like, what do you do with Iran once the nuclear issue is resolved and it remains a foe? What do you do if Iran then develops conventional capabilities that could make it hazardous for U.S. Navy ships to operate in the Persian Gulf? He kept saying, "And then what?"
[General James Mattis surveys outcomes]

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